In a pivotal political development in Bihar, Nitish Kumar, the Chief Minister, announced his resignation, marking the conclusion of a two-year alliance between his party, Janata Dal(United), and the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD). This move signifies a significant shift as Kumar returns to an alliance with the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). The BJP has already secured support letters for Kumar from its legislators, signaling a renewed collaboration between the two parties. Additionally, the BJP and JD(U) have finalized a seat-sharing agreement for the upcoming Lok Sabha elections, adding another layer of complexity to the political landscape in Bihar.
Nitish Kumar’s Resignation
The political landscape in Bihar witnessed a transformation in 2022 when Nitish Kumar severed ties with the BJP. In an unexpected turn of events, he formed the government in a ‘Mahagatbandhan’ with Lalu Yadav’s RJD, the Congress, and Left parties. The Rashtriya Janata Dal emerged as the single-largest party in the 243-member Bihar Assembly, securing 79 seats. However, this fell significantly short of the halfway mark of 122 required for a majority.
Contrastingly, the BJP positioned itself as the second-largest party in the assembly, boasting a strength of 78 MLAs. The intricate balance of power and numbers became evident as political dynamics shifted with Nitish Kumar’s decision to realign with the BJP.
2022 Bihar Political Shake-Up
A comprehensive breakdown of the current composition of the Bihar Assembly reveals the following representation:
- RJD: 79 MLAs
- BJP: 78 MLAs
- JD(U): 45 MLAs
- Congress: 19 MLAs
- CPI (M-L): 12 MLAs
- Hindustani Awam Morcha (Secular): 4 MLAs
- CPI: 2 MLAs
- CPI (M): 2 MLAs
- AIMIM: 1 MLA
- Independent MLA: 1
The critical question arises: Can JD(U) and BJP jointly form the government in Bihar? Nitish Kumar, along with the BJP, would collectively command 123 MLAs, marginally surpassing the halfway mark needed to establish a majority government. The BJP’s additional support from the Hindustani Awam Morcha, contributing four more MLAs, further strengthens the alliance’s position to prove majority.
BJP’s Support for Nitish Kumar
Sources within the BJP have indicated that all party legislators in the state have pledged their support to Nitish Kumar. Rather than proposing Kumar’s resignation as Chief Minister, the BJP has suggested a cabinet reshuffle, advocating the replacement of RJD ministers with its own MLAs.
The realignment of political alliances raises questions about the fate of the ‘Mahagatbandhan’ if Nitish Kumar exits. With JD(U) breaking away from the coalition, the ‘Mahagatbandhan’ falls short by eight MLAs of the majority mark. Despite this setback, RJD leader and Bihar Deputy Chief Minister Tejashwi Yadav have hinted at staking a claim to form the government.
Tejashwi Yadav’s Anticipation
In the absence of JD(U), the coalition, backed by Congress and left parties, would amass a total of 114 MLAs, still falling eight short of the halfway mark required for a majority. This underscores the intricate interplay of political dynamics, with every MLA count crucial in determining the fate of the government formation in Bihar.
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Tejashwi Yadav’s statement to party leaders adds an air of anticipation to the unfolding political drama: “Whatever remained undone in two decades, we managed to get it done within a short time – be it jobs, caste census, increasing reservation, etc. ‘Bihar mein abhi khel hona baki hain’ (The game is yet to begin in Bihar).” This statement reflects the determination and strategic outlook of the RJD in navigating the complex political landscape of Bihar.
As the political chessboard takes shape, alliances are formed and dissolved, and power dynamics shift, Bihar finds itself at the center of a political maelstrom. The subsequent chapters in this unfolding saga will determine not only the leadership in the state but also the larger narrative of coalition politics in the region. The echoes of Bihar’s political decisions are sure to reverberate beyond its borders, influencing the national political discourse in the days to come.