In a strategic dance balancing tensions with India and courting China’s favour, Maldivian President Mohamed Muizzu embarked on a five-day visit to the Asian giant, leaving behind a trail of agreements, appeals for tourism revival, and pronouncements of China as a “closest ally.” This visit, shrouded in the shadow of the recent India-Maldives diplomatic row, throws light on the archipelago nation’s delicate geopolitical manoeuvring and its economic dependence on tourism – a sector heavily reliant on both Indian and Chinese visitors.
Tourism, BRI, and Beyond: Maldives’ Delicate Diplomacy Amidst India’s Watchful Eye
The visit opened with Muizzu’s address to the Maldives Business Forum in Fujian, where he unabashedly called China “one of our closest allies and development partners.” He lauded the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) projects, crediting them with delivering “the most significant infrastructure projects witnessed in Maldivian history.” This, alongside his fervent plea for China to “intensify efforts” to send more tourists, signals a deliberate tilt towards Beijing amidst the ongoing friction with India.
The diplomatic row sparked by derogatory remarks by Maldivian ministers against Prime Minister Modi had threatened to dent Indian tourism, a vital lifeline for the Maldivian economy. India maintained its top spot as the country’s largest tourist market in 2023, with over 209,000 arrivals. This dependence is further underscored by the 2014 Free Trade Agreement (FTA) signed during the pro-China Yameen administration; a pact currently shelved by the Solih administration.
However, China, once the top tourism market pre-pandemic, has seen its numbers dwindle due to its stringent lockdown policies and economic slowdown. Muizzu’s appeal, therefore, carries an implicit urgency to revive a vital source of income for the island nation. This desperation is further reflected in the signing of a USD 50 million project to develop an integrated tourism zone, a potential gamble aimed at wooing back Chinese tourists.
Yet, the Maldives’ geopolitical tightrope walk remains precarious. While embracing China’s economic largesse, it cannot entirely ignore India’s strategic proximity and its vital role in tourism and security. Recent events have already demonstrated the fragility of this balance. The Indian tourists’ cancellations following the diplomatic spat served as a stark reminder of the potential consequences of alienating its close neighbour.
Moreover, the Maldives’ strategic location in the Indian Ocean makes it a coveted pawn in the region’s geopolitical chessboard. The BRI’s footprint in the country, with projects like the development of 15 airports and the expansion of Special Economic Zones, raises concerns about potential debt traps and a growing Chinese influence. This, coupled with the delicate India-China rivalry, further complicates the Maldives’ quest for economic prosperity and geopolitical stability.
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Navigating this complex landscape requires shrewd diplomacy and a clear-eyed understanding of the nation’s priorities. While fostering closer ties with China can unlock economic opportunities, it should not come at the expense of neglecting India’s crucial role. Striking a balance between these two Asian giants, while safeguarding its own sovereignty and economic wellbeing, will be the defining challenge for the Maldives in the years to come.
The future of the Maldives hinges on its ability to walk this tightrope with dexterity. It must leverage its strategic location and natural beauty to attract diverse sources of investment and tourism, while maintaining strategic autonomy and avoiding overdependence on any single power. Only then can the island nation chart a course towards sustainable development and secure its place as a thriving tourist haven in the Indian Ocean.
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