It looks like Prime Minister Narendra Modi is on the brink of making history with a potential third term in office. Exit polls released on Saturday have been unanimous in predicting a stellar performance for Modi’s National Democratic Alliance (NDA), with expectations that they will not only match but possibly exceed their 2019 performance by crossing the 350-seat mark. Some even suggest that the BJP might achieve its ambitious ‘400-paar’ (beyond 400) target.
Modi spearheads BJP’s Expansion into Eastern and Southern States
One of the most remarkable aspects of this predicted victory is the BJP’s significant inroads into the eastern and southern states. In West Bengal and Odisha, the BJP is projected to outshine the incumbents. The polls suggest that the BJP could win between 19 and 31 of the 42 seats in Bengal, with most estimates leaning towards the higher end. In Odisha, the BJP is expected to secure anywhere from 9 to 20 seats out of 21, a significant gain considering the state’s long-standing support for the Biju Janata Dal (BJD).
Gains in Telangana, Andhra Pradesh, Kerala, and Tamil Nadu
The BJP and PM Modi’s influence is also projected to rise in Telangana, where they are expected to either match or surpass Congress’s tally. In Andhra Pradesh, the alliance with the Telugu Desam Party (TDP) is predicted to dominate the state, according to all but one poll. Kerala might see the BJP opening its account, and in Tamil Nadu, the party could win seats even without aligning with the major Dravidian parties, if the exit polls are accurate.
Mixed Success Rates of Exit Polls
While exit polls are generally considered more reliable than pre-election opinion polls, their accuracy has been mixed in India. They have had their share of hits and misses over the years. The actual results will be out on June 4, which will reveal whether these predictions hold true.
Potential Challenges and Losses
Despite the overall positive forecast for the BJP and the incumbent Modi Government, the exit polls do indicate some areas of concern. Maharashtra, for instance, is expected to be a tight race. The NDA, which won 41 of the state’s 48 seats in 2019, might face significant challenges from the INDIA alliance. In Uttar Pradesh, the NDA is predicted to not only retain its 2019 tally of 64 seats but also gain a few more, though the increase isn’t expected to be large. Bihar might see the NDA losing a few seats compared to 2019, but not enough to significantly impact their overall tally. None of the polls predict the INDIA alliance winning more than 10 of the 40 seats in Bihar.
Final Verdict of the Exit polls
| Alliance | Axis-India Today | Today’s Chanakya-News 24 | ETG-Times Now | Matrize-Republic TV | C Voters-ABP |
| NDA | 361-401 | 385-415 | 358 | 353-368 | 353-383 |
| INDIA | 131-166 | 96-118 | 152 | 118-133 | 152-182 |
| Others | 8-20 | 27-45 | 33 | 43-48 | 4-12 |
If these exit polls are anything to go by, the BJP’s expansion in the east and south, coupled with minimal losses in their strongholds like Gujarat, Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, and Karnataka, could easily secure another term for Modi’s NDA. However, all eyes will be on June 4 when the actual results are announced, confirming whether these predictions come true. Will Narendra Damodardas Modi take oath for the third time, or do we have some surprise left.