The recent wave of terrorist attacks in Iran, culminating in the deadliest assault since the founding of the Islamic Republic in 1979, has exposed a vulnerability that the Iran government seems reluctant to acknowledge. Despite the Islamic State claiming responsibility for the bombings in the city of Kerman, the Iranian government, facing public anger, has chosen to blame Israel, sparking debates and raising questions about the state’s ability to protect its citizens from terrorism.
Security Shattered
For years, Iran and Iran government justified its military presence in Iraq and Syria as a strategy to prevent terrorist threats from reaching its homeland. Officials boasted about successfully combating terrorists through direct intervention or proxy militias in the region, believing this approach spared Iran from facing such threats domestically. However, the devastating twin suicide bombings in Kerman shattered this sense of security, leaving 88 people dead, including 30 children, and over 200 injured.
The Blame Game
Despite the Islamic State claiming responsibility, Iranian officials and government-affiliated pundits persisted in blaming Israel. The Tasnim News Agency, linked to the Revolutionary Guards, went as far as suggesting that “Israel ordered ISIS to take responsibility.” President Ibrahim Raisi, at a ceremony honouring the victims, vowed retaliation and laid blame on both Israel and the United States. Analysts and government opponents argue that blaming external enemies is more convenient for Iranian officials than admitting the state’s inability to protect its citizens from terrorism.
Public Dissatisfaction for Iran government
The Ministry of Intelligence announced the arrest of 12 individuals in connection with the attack but provided no details about their identities or affiliations. While Iran faces an escalating threat from the Islamic State, ordinary Iranians, both critics and supporters of the Islamic Republic, express dissatisfaction and anger at the Iran government. Critics argue that the Iran government’s perceived restraint against Israel’s actions has emboldened adversaries, leading to increased attacks.
Challenges to Iran’s Leadership
Iran’s involvement in regional conflicts, supporting groups like Hamas, Hezbollah, and the Houthis, has created new challenges for the country’s leadership. The ongoing conflict between Israel and Hamas, with Iranian-backed militias actively participating, adds complexity to Iran’s geopolitical position. Recent targeted strikes against Iranian commanders in Syria and Lebanon, attributed to Israel, further complicate Iran’s stance, prompting concerns of a wider regional war.
Economic and Political Struggles
Iran government’s leadership faces a multitude of challenges, including a struggling economy due to U.S. sanctions, mismanagement, and corruption. Prospects for reviving a nuclear deal with the West, offering relief from sanctions, seem dim. The government’s response to mass demonstrations in 2022 and 2019, characterized by brutal violence, adds to domestic discontent. As the specter of terrorism looms large, the government must navigate a delicate balance between responding to external threats and maintaining internal stability.
Security Concerns and Public Fear
The recent terrorist attack targeted a memorial for Maj. Gen. Qassim Suleimani, who played a crucial role in Iran’s regional influence. The Islamic State’s claim of responsibility for the attack, coupled with previous attacks in 2018 and 2022-2023, highlights the persistent threat posed by extremist groups. Iranians, particularly women, express concerns about safety in public spaces, compounding existing fears related to hijab rules and potential confrontations with security forces.
Internal Debates and Calls for Action
As internal debates unfold, some hard-liners advocate for a strong show of force in response to the escalating attacks. The current Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, emphasizes “strategic restraint” to avoid direct military confrontation with the U.S. Despite this, calls for a joint attack in response to assassinations grow louder among certain factions. The delicate balance between demonstrating strength and avoiding strategic mistakes becomes paramount for Iran’s leadership.
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