Poll of Polls: BJP’s Bold Target of 400 Lok Sabha Seats achievable?

Throughout this election season, the BJP has confidently stuck to its ambitious goal of securing 400 seats for the NDA in the Lok Sabha, with their catchy slogan “ab ki baar 400 paar” (this time, we’ll cross 400). Despite facing constant mockery from the opposition, it seems like the ruling party might have the last laugh, if we are to believe three exit polls.

Exit Polls Predict Big Win for BJP

Two of the exit polls have predicted ranges that peak just over 400 seats, while News 24-Today’s Chanakya has made a bolder prediction of exactly 400 seats for the NDA. However, there’s a slight catch; this prediction comes with a margin of error of 15 seats. This means the NDA’s tally could range from a minimum of 385 to a maximum of 415 seats. Similarly, India TV-CNX has estimated a range of 371-401 seats, and India Today-Axis My India predicts 361-401 seats for the NDA.

bjp modi

It’s important to note that exit polls can sometimes be off the mark. But even the lowest predictions suggest a strong performance by the NDA.

A Historic Third Term for Modi?

In the 2019 elections, the NDA secured 352 seats, with the BJP alone winning 303. If Prime Minister Narendra Modi manages to secure a third straight term, it will be a historic achievement. Even if the NDA hits the lower end of these exit poll predictions, it will still indicate a remarkable feat, demonstrating the party’s and its alliance’s strong election machinery and political strategy.

If the NDA achieves the minimum figure of 361 seats as predicted by India Today-Axis My India, it would signify a consistent improvement in their performance with each election. This would suggest that anti-incumbency sentiments are minimal and highlight PM Modi’s enduring popularity.

Opposition INDIA Alliance’s Predictions

The opposition INDIA Alliance has projected a victory in 295 constituencies. However, the exit polls tell a different story. Today’s Chanakya gives them 107 seats (with a margin of error of 11 seats), CNX predicts 109-139 seats, and Axis My India estimates 131-166 seats for the alliance.

Key Battleground: Uttar Pradesh

With its 80 Lok Sabha seats, Uttar Pradesh is always a critical state in any election. In 2019, the BJP won 62 seats here, despite the Samajwadi Party and Bahujan Samaj Party being in an alliance. This time, the Samajwadi Party has allied with the Congress, yet all three exit polls suggest that the BJP will surpass its previous tally in the state. News 24-Today’s Chanakya predicts 68 seats (plus-minus 7), India Today-Axis My India estimates 67-72 seats, and India TV-CNX forecasts 70-74 seats for the BJP.

Stronger Presence in the South and West Bengal

All three polls indicate that the NDA will improve its performance in the southern states compared to 2019. Another significant highlight is the BJP’s projected success in West Bengal. Axis My India even suggests that the BJP could win 26-31 of the 42 seats in the state, surpassing the Trinamool Congress.

What does the Poll of Polls suggest?

SourceNDAINDIAOTHERS
ABP-C Voter353-383152-1824-12
India News-D Dynamics37112547
Dainik Bhaskar281-350145-20133-49
India Today-Axis My India361-401131-1668-20
India TV-CNX371-401109-13928-38
News 24-Today’s Chanakya40010736
Jan Ki Baat362-392141-16110-20
Republic TV-P Marq35915430
News Nation342-378153-16921-23
Republic Bharat-Matrize353-368118-13343-48
TV9 Bharatvarsh-Polstrat34216635
Times Now-ETG35815233
Poll of Polls36514632

These exit poll predictions, if accurate, point towards a significant victory for the BJP and the NDA, reinforcing their political strength and strategic acumen across India. However, as with all exit polls, only the final results will reveal the true picture.

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