In 2014, Yemen found itself thrust into a tumultuous period as Iran-backed rebels, known as the Houthis, seized control of the capital. The response was swift from Saudi Arabia, led by the ambitious 30-year-old Prince Mohammed bin Salman, who spearheaded a military intervention named Operation Decisive Storm. With American assistance and weaponry, the Saudi-led coalition aimed to swiftly defeat the Houthi rebels, a tribal militia. However, what ensued was a protracted conflict that not only drained Saudi Arabia’s resources but also contributed to one of the world’s most severe humanitarian crises.
Fast forward to the present, and the Houthis, driven by an ideology marked by hostility towards the United States and Israel, find themselves in an unexpected global spotlight. Their actions, particularly in the Red Sea region, involving missile and drone attacks on Israel and commercial ships, have prompted the United States to assemble an international maritime coalition to counter the threat. While Saudi Arabia, once deeply involved in Yemen, now prefers a more passive role, focusing on the prospect of peace on its southern border rather than engaging in efforts to halt Houthi attacks.
Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, now the de facto ruler of Saudi Arabia, has shifted his focus towards transforming the kingdom into a global business hub by 2030. As he seeks to attract investors and tourists, the last thing he needs is a resurgence of conflict with the Houthi rebels. In a television interview in September, the prince emphasized the importance of economic development for regional stability and expressed a commitment to ending the war in Yemen through a permanent cease-fire that opens the door for a political process.
Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman Efforts
Simultaneously, Prince Mohammed has been working towards easing tensions across the Middle East, including a notable rapprochement with regional rival Iran. The return of Houthi attacks could jeopardize these diplomatic efforts and hinder Saudi Arabia’s goal of presenting itself as open for business.
The Houthis, on the other hand, have expanded their military capabilities and appear undeterred by the prospect of conflict with the United States. Their leader, Abdul-Malik al-Houthi, openly declared in a televised speech a willingness to confront the U.S. directly. The group’s slogan, including phrases like “Death to America” and “Death to Israel,” underscores their ideological stance, while their attacks on commercial ships are framed as a righteous battle against the Israeli siege of Gaza.
The Houthis are not just a local militia; they play a crucial role in Iran’s “Axis of Resistance,” a network of armed groups across the Middle East. Despite this, Yemeni analysts and Saudi officials view the Houthis as a complex Yemeni group rather than a mere Iranian proxy.
As the conflict escalates, the Houthis see an opportunity to fulfill their narrative and gain credibility. The war in Gaza provides them with a chance to further their anti-American and anti-Israel agenda. The recent string of concerts in Saudi Arabia, including performances by Metallica, has been subtly referenced by the Houthis, emphasizing their disdain for any collaboration with the U.S. in a war against them.
Before the Gaza conflict, the Houthis were on the verge of signing a peace deal backed by the U.S. and Saudi Arabia, potentially signalling the beginning of the end of the Yemen war. Negotiations were reportedly progressing well, with discussions on issues such as salary payments for public servants and the potential reopening of airports and ports to ease the suffering of millions in Yemen.
Despite the Houthi response to the Gaza conflict, the talks with Saudi Arabia have not been derailed. In fact, some analysts suggest that the war in Gaza has brought the Houthis and Saudis closer, reinforcing their commitment to a peace deal. The Houthis’ demand for compensation from Saudi Arabia remains a sticking point, but the Saudi government is likely to include some form of payment to facilitate the agreement.
Amid these negotiations, Saudi Arabia continues to cultivate warmer ties with Iran, signaling a broader shift in regional dynamics. The recent visit of Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi to Riyadh in November indicates a willingness to engage in diplomacy despite historical animosities.
In response to the Houthi threat in the Red Sea, the United States has announced a naval task force, though notably, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates are not among its members. This move has sparked anger in Bahrain, the only Arab nation to join the task force. Some pundits in the Gulf express frustration with U.S. policies, arguing that American actions have inadvertently contributed to the Houthis’ resilience.
Saudi Arabia’s reluctance to participate in Western efforts to protect Israel underscores a shift in its Yemen strategy. The focus has shifted from direct military action to cultivating relationships with various Yemeni factions. After eight years of war, the reality is that the Houthis effectively control northern Yemen, establishing a proto-state ruled with an iron fist.